Urban Population Dynamics (2)

Today, "the shift from rural to urban in this part of the world has usually become very gradual or stagnant or, in some cases, reversed"(Potts, 2011: 1383). Large numbers of urban inhabitants have moved back to their rural towns due to a combination of the growth in the informal sector of smaller towns and job losses in the formal sector in larger cities. Therefore, while Africapolis, have effectively managed expectations by reviewing estimates of urbanisation in West Africa, an increase in the proportion of the population living in urban areas in West Africa is set to increase modestly as secondary towns and smaller urban centres merge with each other (Africapolis). It is the growth of these peri-urban fringes where "the returns to land from traditional and customary urban land uses are roughly equal to the returns from traditional land uses" (Sanusi, 2010: 14), that I feel will provide the best opportunity to test new approaches that can then be scaled up to even larger urban centres.

The prevalent technology and economic level of the town provide a framework for what can be achieved within the limits of the physical environment (urban hydrology, soil structure etc.), along with a careful assumption of the social climate, to ensure that new initiatives are feasible, realistic and well received (Drangert et al., 2002: 354).

The term 'own-key' indicates "arrangements and activities that are managed and controlled by local communities by employing local knowledge and skills, while 'turn-key' arrangements consist of activities that are being utilised by residents without their involvement in the development and management of affairs." (Drangert et al., 2002: 354).

Reference List:

Africapolis. 'AFRICAPOLIS: Urbanization Trends in West Africa 1950:2020' (WWW; http://www.afd.fr/webdav/shared/PUBLICATIONS/THEMATIQUES/autres-publications/BT/0808ProjetFicheResumeeAfricapolisV4-en.pdf; 20 October 2015)

Drangert J., J. Okotto-Okotto, L.G.O. Okotto and O. Auko (2002) 'Going Small When the City Grows Big New Options for Water Supply and Sanitation in Rapidly Expanding Urban Areas', International Water Resources Association, Water International, 27, 3, 354-363

Potts, D. (2012) 'Challenging the Myths of Urban Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Evidence from Nigeria', World Development, 40, 7, 1382-1393 

Sanusi, A.Y. (2010) 'Water, Sanitation and Human Development in Urban Fringe Settlements in Nigeria', Theoretical and Empirical Researches in Urban Management, 8, 17, 14-29

Urban Population Dynamics

Are the preconceptions of rapid urban growth, densely populated slums and intense rural-urban migration in Africa correct? Are they providing the right background upon which we analyse the success of new schemes?

Potts, in 'Challenging the Myths of Urban Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa', has questioned existing literature in providing an adequate picture of urbanization in Africa. In recent years, the dynamics of African urban populations and economies have gone in two directions: positive economic growth  fuelled by in-migration, or rapid urbanization which has not been followed up by sufficient urban-based investment (Potts, 2011: 1382).

This study was focused on Nigeria due to its "population size and varied indigenous traditions of urbanization"(Potts, 2011: 1386). The misrepresentation of current figures is alarming. The UN, estimated that in 2008, 69 million Nigerians were living in towns. However, compared to Africapolis, which is regarded as the "most comprehensive and comparable data on urbanization in West Africa" by the OECD (OECD), only 42 million Nigerians resided in towns - a difference of 27 million people. 

Reference List:

OECD (2015) 'Africapolis, a comprehensive and comparable dataset on urbanisation in West Africa' (WWW; http://www.oecd.org/swac/ourwork/africapolis.htm; 20 October 2015)

Potts, D. (2012) 'Challenging the Myths of Urban Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Evidence from Nigeria', World Development, 40, 7, 1382-1393